According to a new BIS report 'there is scant evidence of a shift away from cash'. Cash in circulation as a proportion of GDP is up from 7 percent in 2000 to the current level of 9 percent. Of course, there are large variations. In Sweden the figure is 2 percent, compared with 20 in Japan.

It was in this context that I read the UK Treasury Department’s document entitled 'Call for Evidence - Cash and Digital Payments in the New Economy' and in particular chapter 3, 'the future role for cash'. While seeking further ways to encourage digital payments the paper recognises that 'cash continues to play an important role in the lives of many people and businesses in the UK'. It acknowledges that research has shown 2.7 million in the UK are totally reliant on cash. A further 45 million continue to use cash alongside other payment mechanisms. The Treasury noted that more than a half of those who relied predominantly on cash had incomes of less than £15,000. In this context a comment that the government remains committed to ensuring the public's cash needs continue to be met is completely logical. For many countries the issue of financial inclusion remains important. In the US alone, there are over 15 million unbanked individuals (with a further 51 million underbanked - Forbes 10 May 2017). How would these people cope if stores refused cash payments? Looked at from a global perspective, according to Business Insider (30 August 2017) there are 2 billion people unbanked worldwide.

Some have suggested that solutions along the lines of MPesa in Kenya are the answer. The scheme was launched ten years ago and there are now 36 million mobile money accounts BUT MPesa admits 8 out of 10 transactions are still cash (Guardian 22 February 2018).

What other factors will impact a shift to digital payments? The Treasury paper I referred to highlights costs as an inhibitor to electronic payments. It quotes British Retail Consortium figures that such payments cost 0.24 percent of transaction value to process compared with 0.15 for cash.

Last week I came across an article in retailtouchpoints.com written by Ralf Gladis (16 March). Looking at this issue from a global perspective he states that 'cash is very popular where people mistrust their bank and government'. Another issue highlighted in the article is the area of data privacy and trust. His analysis is that greater convenience will drive e-wallet use but there is a rider. He concludes that 'cash will eventually disappear as consumer trust in data privacy and security increases. However, it will still take a couple of decades to get to that point'.

Throughout Europe (East and West) cash payments accounted $3.6 trillion in 2016. That's a lot of transactions to replace. A survey of 50,000 convenience stores in the UK found that over three quarters of transactions were still being paid in cash (PYMNTS.com 11 October 2017).

Cashless? Evidence suggests we are on a long journey.