Whenever someone states a fact you can guarantee someone else will contradict it. Even the origin of the quote is disputed. Some favour Mark Twain, others Benjamin Disraeli and yet others Lord Courtney. As the UK heads for a Christmas election we are about to be bombarded with diverse opinions from various parties with every announcement being spun in a particular direction. Even as we speak large numbers of 'researchers ' will be poring over the same pieces of data, trying to interpret them in a way that confirms and enhances their own party's position. With the media standing accused of similar bias (and it could be argued that most people read material that reconfirms their own prejudices) the issue for the genuinely uncommitted voter is 'who do you believe?'
Let's be honest, there are times when we all interpret the facts to suit our own opinions. But for business people making decisions that will impact the bottom line it is only facts that count. For example, you might wish for and even promote a cashless society but if the facts demonstrate it is not happening any time soon then to plan for any other scenario leaves your business unprepared and exposed.
Of course, you don't have to believe me, but this is what some independent bodies are saying about cash usage
United Kingdom
According to UK Finance (June 2019) 'Cash remained the second most frequently used means of payment in 2018 and is forecast to remain so until at least 2025'
1.9 million people still use mainly cash
By 2028 there are expected to be 3.8 billion cash payments in the UK
Europe
There is wide diversity in the use of cash across Europe.
According to The ECB (24 September 2018) 'Cash can be expected to remain an important means of payment in most euro countries for the foreseeable future'
According to The Deutsche Bundesbank, in 2017, 74 percent of all domestic transactions in Germany were conducted using cash.
The G4S World Cash report 2018 painted a varied picture. 'Paper currency is often used In Germany, Austria and Slovenia where 80 percent or more of POS transactions used cash. In the Netherlands, Estonia and Finland the number of such transactions ranged from 45 to 54 percent.'
United States
The Diary on Consumer Payment Choice (2018) recorded that cash accounts for 30 percent of all transactions and 55 percent of those under $10.
Africa
The African Cash Report by Calleo covers Angola, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia. It concludes that cash is growing in value across all the countries.
There are a number of reasons for the continuing reliance on cash in these countries. There remains low banking penetration across Africa and there is a widespread informal economy.
Even in South Africa, cash accounts for over 50 percent of transaction value.
Whereas mobile payments have taken off in Kenya, in Nigeria, for example, only 6 percent of the population use mobile phones to make financial transactions.
Worldwide studies
A 2019 IMF study looked at the US, five countries in Europe and five in Asia. On average cash usage has declined by between 1.3 to 2.2 percent a year. 'The average cash use reduction out to 2026 is forecast to slow to 1.4 percent'.
According to a recent report from The Paypers entitled 'Are we moving towards a cashless society', 'based on a global overview of cash in commerce, our research suggests that with all the innovation in place to facilitate digital payments, cash is still the leading payment method at the checkout. The takeaway here is that retailers are still enabled to handle cash efficiently and safely, and this is something that will increase even more the attractiveness of accepting cash'.
So, there you have it, a concise guide to continued cash usage as reported by independent authorities - payment bodies, central banks, international finance bodies and independent researchers. How you interpret the facts is down to you. But ignore them at your peril.
