“Hi Ben, my customer says cash is dead, what am I going to do? Will I be jobless in a year?”

How many times have I heard this? Or a friend asking me what I’m going to do for a job now that cash is just one click or QR code away from extinction. Children at my daughter’s school asked me the same after I gave a very enlightening (if I do say so myself) presentation about cash and payments.

So here is what I usually say:

1. Cash is dead - just look at China.

According to industry sources at Fujitsu, cash in circulation in China actually rose by 16% in 2017 and the People’s Bank of China’s printing affiliate, the CBPM (China Banknote Printing & Metals) opened a new printing factory.

Hold the phone, 16% increase and a new factory, I thought no-one paid with cash anymore?

Indeed. No doubt there has been a huge increase in non-cash payments and QR codes are prominent in many cities, but cash remains used. And used a lot. If cash were dead, would investing in a new factory make sense? Really?

So how much would a banknote factory print every year? A single line at a banknote running a single shift would print 500 million notes. If you already have multiple factories - and China has six factories, all with multiple lines - it’s much easier to add another shift than to open a new factory.

2. What about Sweden?

So Sweden and other Nordics are at about 20-25% of transactions being undertaken in cash. These are the countries most talked about as going cashless. And there’s a lot less cash being used than ten years ago but still, 25% is in cash.

25% is close to zero in the same way 75 is close to 100. Close but not near. Like Basingstoke is close to London, like Himeji is close to Tokyo. It’s closer than London is to Tokyo.

I’m struggling to think of any organisation that serves customers that can afford to say to 25% of its customers that they won’t accept their preferred method of payment. In fact, Shake Shack in the US recently tried and it didn’t turn out too well with the decision being reversed pretty quickly.

Not accepting cash is as foolish as not accepting cards. Why would you do that?

Plus (spoken in quiet tones) are you aware that the Central Bank of Sweden is now publicly saying that it needs to carefully manage the cashless system lest it grinds to a halt, falls victim to a cyberattack, runs out of battery or simply stops being something that country can control? Hmmm. Food for thought.

3. What does the data say?

Well I’m glad you asked because in Singapore the Monetary Authority (the central bank) publishes regular data on the matter and given this is where I live, where travel by train and bus is a tap and go digital money affair, where every car and motorbike has to have a smart card with stored value on it for parking & tolls on roads i.e. a very e-money ready country, cash in circulation rose by 8% in 2017.

That’s 8% more notes and coins circulating in the same year the Prime Minister pushed Singapore - including its banks and techpreneurs (apparently that is a real word) to go cashless. It just hasn’t happened.

4. How about I sell you a money printing machine instead?

Really? Do you have one? I certainly do. But before I sell you that, when do you think cash will disappear? 2 years? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

Our customers usually say at least 5 to 10 years given where we are and how challenging it is to make such a change. After all, even India’s demonetisation of 86% of all its cash in 55 days saw it all come back in a year.

So if my retail cash recycler, my TCR or indeed any of my solutions solves the pain you have in handling cash now and generates enough savings to meet your 2 year or 3 year ROI, and you agree that cash will still be here in 5 years - congratulations, we’re printing money for you.

So, to my occasionally anxious salesperson and my concerned friends I say, “Really? Are we going to be out of a job in a year?”